OCT 27: Whether or not you need to sell, these five basic steps can help focus your collecting so you can receive maximum enjoyment and profit. Start by getting organized. Next, cull some of the lesser coins from your portfolio. Finally, focus on those areas which are the most meaningful to you.

1. Make A List
The vast majority of our clients keep their coins in safe deposit boxes, and rarely do have an opportunity to look at everything together. Since they were likely acquired over many years, accompanying records and notes tend to get scattered. A comprehensive list of the necessary information is very useful. It will allow you to see exactly which coins you're missing, which coins you have too many of, and give you a starting point to review your collecting goals. It helps not just to list the date, grade, and denomination, but the certification service, amount paid, purchase date, and source as well.

Having all of this information at your fingertips will prevent mistakes such as purchasing duplicates or passing on coins that you need. Here's how such a chart may look:



The best charts are sorted first by denomination, then by date, and third by grade. This will make it very easy for you to find coins. The certification number on the holder is useful to keep track of duplicates, and can be important in locating your coins if they are lost or stolen. Knowing whom you bought your coins from is also surprisingly useful. We will always make a stronger offer on coins we've sold, since we are picky buyers and we are, therefore, confident the coins will be nice for their respective grades.

2. Cull Your Duplicates
At this point, you may find that you have some extra coins. You may have purchased an MS66 to replace an MS64, without trading the lower grade example, or you may have mistakenly bought two coins of the same date and grade. We recommend that you eliminate those items that are not essential to your collection or portfolio. These coins can either be sold outright, or can be used as trades to reduce the amount of cash necessary for future acquisitions.

3. Consider Your Goals
Make sure your money is really where you want it to be. There is nothing wrong with buying all you can of a date you feel is undervalued. However, if your goal is to obtain the finest collection of a particular series, chances are you don't want or need duplicates. Or possibly you started several collections, only to get discouraged or change directions. If you own bits and pieces of different collections, it may be a good idea to figure out a direction. Maybe you decided that you didn't really like the Barber design after embarking on a proof Barber dime collection. Maybe you started a Morgan Dollar collection, but at some point abandoned the idea because it was just too daunting.

4. Don't Worry What You Paid
Some collectors refuse to sell a coin at a loss, or make the mistake of selling a cornerstone in their collection because they can make a great profit. These are not the reasons to sell. Consider what the item's long-term potential may be. And remember, everyone makes mistakes. Holding on to an inferior coin just because you will take a loss on it, is not the right decision. Coins that are overgraded and/or display poor eye-appeal can negatively impact your entire collection.

It may not be the easiest task to decide which coins to sell and which to keep. One of the best ways to help make those decisions is to speak with a dealer you trust who can help you make the right choices.

Selling coins is not difficult, and if you follow the five rules above you will avoid the most common mistakes. This may be a topic that you'd like to discuss with one of us, and we would certainly love to hear from you. The bottom line is that each collection is as individual as the collector. Our job is simply to help you build the collections that will bring you the ultimate enjoyment. Providing a bit of focus can make all the difference and can also allow you to walk away with some cash in the process.

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SEPT 05/09 -   We see things firming up. We were amazed at how many NEW collectors have bought from us since September 1. No, its not just the McClaren coins. They want nice coins. We have not heard anything about speculation. Most are starting sets. Some just like a certain design. They are not buying token cheap coins-several bought low five figure pieces. The main thing, these people are buying coins. We have even seen some old friends come back who we haven’t seen in months or the past year. While demand is firming, there is no wholesale dumping of collections that we have heard of. In fact, we wish there was-the biggest problem right now is finding neat coins. Where are all the GEM Bust Halves, MS65 Seated Dollars, or PR Gold pieces?

The market should firm up even more between now and the end of the year. There will continue to be certain areas of weakness (unfortunately MS&PR Barber coins still seem sluggish), while other areas-like long suffering commems may finally have hit price points so low they have to move up. There are definitely more people today building nice Commem sets that we have heard of than at any other time in the past few years.

And gold, well generics are doing the correction we told you about. You will see MS65 Saints fall another 10%-even if gold goes up (the movement of gold is by traders, not pure demand). MS66 Saints have held and are still in demand. Last well, we posted two better MS65 $10 Indians PCGS MS65 CAC-we wish we had 7 of them! That's who many of them we could have sold. So long as the coins not in an area that ran up to high, gold is a safe place to be and will continue to firm. Just watch the rags to see which common gold coins are now falling.

Remember, buying rare coins is not a short term flip. You buy them for the long term. The long term is really forever- maybe one day in 15 years you happen to notice they have gone up dramatically (unless your dealer has called you in between). There is no set time limit. The trick is to BUY THE BEST QUALITY YOU CAN AFFORD AND HOLD. EYE APPEAL IS EVERYTHING. Even if you buy 5 MONSTER MS65 Morgans and hold them, you should do well. Buying ugly coins cheap will not get you anywhere near the % returns great coins will achieve. The coin market had walked a very dangerous path until two years ago. Grading was almost out of control and the coin doctors did serious damage. Today, the coin docs are a bitter bunch who still try hard, but do not get as mcuh through as they used too. The grading services realize they need to be alert not only for their own sake, but for the future of the entire coin hobby. Because of this, we see more consumer confidence and more buying down the road. As long as the speculators are wiped out and true collectors rule, the coin market will enjoy steady slow rises.

COINFEST

Showtime is almost here! The show opens in the afternoon Friday October 8th and closes Sunday afternoon October 10th. of course we will be there and have a table.

CAC will be there accepting up to 20 submissions from collectors ONLY. Remember, last year they got swamped. You need to arrive before 10 AM and submit. Be prepared to wait several hours for your coins to be returned. There will be 150+ leading dealers set up, so you will have plenty to see and do while waiting.

Do not miss the Saturday morning 8:30 AM Q&A with John Albanese! Legend and Jon Lerner thank John Albanese and CAC for all the support they have given to COINFEST. It is the ONLY show you will see CAC set up at.

PCGS will be at the show accepting submissions-but they will NOT be grading there.

It will be a great show, come on out! We had a huge turn out last year. We designed this show with the collector in mind, not the wholesale dealers!

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We expect the market to slowly start to regain the strength we saw in June. The climax should be during the ANA show (or possibly the week after). The demand for better properly graded “fresh” coins is very strong even now during the summer. Today, our problem is NOT in selling anything cool we get, its finding the cool coins. In the general market, we still see too many dealers saddled with dreck. Most likely that will keep the market where it is for a quite a while until this stuff some how goes away.

There are 2 small but important shows in Las Vegas immediately after the ANA Show in August that could make things very interesting. One is run by the PNG and the other by PCGS. Typically, this time period after the ANA collectors step back to absorb their purchases and things are quiet.

Our concerns for the post ANA time period are not just with these shows, but with the material we see in the PRE and ANA auctions. Retreads, boring coins, and dreck are the highlights this year. There are no world class major multi million dollar collections that make your eye balls pop out. In fact, we did not see many impressive high grade rarities at all offered in any of the sales (we didn’t see any MS67 Bust Halves, MS 65 Seated Dollars, no classic rarities, no earth shattering GEM gold that weren’t retreads, etc). These sales could actually soften the market a little since this stuff has to go somewhere. And if dealers are counting on coins selling to raise cash in these auctions, they could be in for a very big surprise.

Almost immediately following these sales/shows is Long Beach (usually the weakest of the three held). This year, there are some world class early Copper Sales that collectors have been waiting years for. Those will go insane, however, we do think that unless gold is still rising, the rest of the market will quiet down for September.

If the coin market has survived so far, we feel very strongly that it will NOT crash or do anything worse than a slow small wave like motion for the rest of the year. We stand by our comments that the low point of the coin market was at the CSNS show back in May. We have made too many sales, see where demand is coming from, and can’t replace what we sell.
 

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What’s Hot/What’s Not: The Coin Market As of May 2009
By Doug Winter on Tuesday, May 26, 2009
 

It’s been a longstanding tradition of mine to write a What’s Hot/What’s Not blog a few times a year. The last time I did this was, I believe, around the beginning of 2009. A lot has changed since then and, as we head into the summer, I’d like to share my thoughts about the coin market in general and United States gold coins to be more specific.

In the past, it was always very easy to discuss those areas of the market that were “hot.” But with the current economic situation, it probably makes more sense to discuss what’s “not in meltdown mode” instead of what’s doing well.

I’ve been pretty surprised at, all things considered, how well the market has held up. When you consider that most people’s 401k plans are down 50-60% since September 2008 and that many people’s homes have lost 50% or so in value….the losses that we’ve seen in many parts of the coin market aren’t looking quite that bad.

Let’s take a look at a few specific areas and see how they are holding up and what my forecast is for them in the immediate future. The first is early gold. I would have to say that the early gold market has held up far better than most other areas in the coin market. Prices are down around 10-20% for the most part but demand for early gold remains strong and many early gold coins remain quite liquid. The biggest change I’ve noticed in this area of the market is related to quality. If an early gold coin is very nice (nice enough, in this case, to have received a CAC sticker) it is a reasonably easy sale even in this market. I think this is especially true with coins in the $5,000-20,000 range. The more expensive early gold issues are harder to sell right now, even if they are very nice and/or very exotic.

One area of the early gold market that seems to be experiencing a noticeable price correction is the Capped Bust Right Heraldic Eagle ten dollar gold type. I think this is very understandable when you consider that these coins got very pricey in the past few years and that many of the ones in third-party holders are just awful.

I’d have to call the Charlotte and Dahlonega market pretty spotty right now. In their February Long Beach sale, Heritage had a massive amount of C+D gold coins and many prices were very cheap. But unless you really understand the market (and saw the coins in the sale) it is hard to make bold declarations. My take on the C+D market is that there are a lot of truly wretched coins on the market right now and the bottom feeders are either out of money or able to buy the schlock so cheaply that they are dragging prices down for the decent coins. As far as really nice (or really rare) C+D gold goes, this is an entirely different market altogether. Coins like 1855-D gold dollars or 1856-D quarter eagles in wholesome Extremely Fine and better grades are doing just fine and I’m not sure they’ve dropped in value at all since September 2008.

Proof gold is another area that has clearly dropped but I’m not really certain exactly how much. It is clear that the not interesting, bright-n-shiny pieces are off at least 20% or in some cases even more. But it is hard to figure out what really nice Proof gold is worth right now since so little of it has sold in the past six months. My guess is that a high quality, low mintage issue from the 1860’s or 1870’s would bring around 10-15% less than it might of a year ago. The areas that seem hardest hit by the current Numismatic Malaise include Matte Proofs and smaller denomination Proofs from the late 19th century.

20th century gold has been hit harder by the economic downturn than 19th century gold. Expensive coins in the Indian Head series (quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles) are clearly weak. These areas were actually slumping even before September 2008 and for a variety of reasons. The Indian Head quarter eagle series had its major market maker pull way back with purchases, causing a significant drop in demand. Better date Indian Head half eagles and eagles have always been rather thinly traded and, as been the case for as long as I can remember, by happenstance both happened to be at low ebbs in their typical up and down flow. Saints had been very active until early 2007 but the market slowed down after a number of major collectors either sold their coins or cut back on their purchases. Ironically, the generic issues in these four series have been very solid performers in this market.

Two areas that seem to be holding up rather well are New Orleans gold and Type One double eagles. These are markets that are dominated by collectors and there is almost always strong demand for the limited number of choice, interesting coins that are offered for sale. I am noting a softening in the very high end of both of these areas (i.e., issues such as 1866-S No Motto double eagles) but the low to upper-mid price range of both areas seems pretty liquid right now. Coins that are in demand right now include better date New Orleans half eagles and eagles in the EF40 to Uncirculated range, Type One Philadelphia double eagles that are priced in the $2,000-7,000 range and anything in these two areas that is “exotic.” (an example of this would be a No Motto New Orleans eagle in Uncirculated that is one of fewer than four-five known).

From my own personal experience, I am noting a resurgence of interest in the last 45-60 days. I am selling considerably more coins now than I was a few months ago. But, there is a clear difference in the market. Collectors are much more selective than they were before and expensive coins (in my case, $20,000 and above) take longer to sell than they did in the past.

I expect the next few months to be pretty quiet. There are only two significant shows between now and the Summer ANA and at least one (the Baltimore show in June) is likely to have much lower attendance than the other editions of this convention. I think prices will hold firm between now and ANA with occasional spikes up and down that are mostly related to bullion movement.
 

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Generic prices falling
5-21-09

In the generic end of the U.S. coin market, the collectors who are looking for a splendid example are willing to pay strong prices for the right example. But, in cases where supply exceeds demand, great bargains are available.

In total approximately $45 million in numismatic property changed hands at the recent Central States Numismatic Society Heritage auctions an impressive number in any market. While Platinum Night, which I discussed last week, contains the glitziest and priciest coins, the nonfloor sessions, held immediately after the convention ends, illustrate a different sector of the market.

These sessions, which contain coins primarily in the $200 to $1,000 range, achieved a remarkable 92 percent sell-through rate by lot. That multiple examples of the same issue in the same grade are offered in a single auction allows for interesting comparisons.

The dominant trend was that generic coins sold generally well below established retail levels, sometimes falling even below wholesale sight-unseen bids. Perhaps the quintessential generic coin is the 1881-S Morgan dollar � a coin that "comes nice" and is widely available in all grades.

For example, two 1881-S Morgan dollars graded Mint State 67 by Numismatic Guaranty Corp. were offered at the Heritage nonfloor session after CSNS. One sold for $661.25, another for $1,092.50, and a non-star MS-67 example realized $633.65. The last price is below the sight-unseen wholesale bid, but the results are not inconsistent with prices realized at the last several major auctions.

Those with the patience to look through these large auctions will be rewarded with bargains and the ability to buy coins at wholesale levels. However, exceptional examples for the grade, and those coins that exhibit beautiful toning continue to bring strong prices. The rest seem to have found some stability.

The auction format is still attractive to consignors because it lets coins that are extraordinary soar past expectations. But, collectors aren't bidding up non-exceptional coins because they know that the next large auction will likely offer another large selection.

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Collectively, dealers probably have want lists for millions of specific coins from hundreds of thousands of individual collectors.

But coins on want lists don't necessarily coincide with major buying trends in the dealer community that supply dealers with enough coins for specific promotions and to maintain inventories of coins that are routinely selling well.

Let's look at some of the current major buying trends within the U.S. coin market.

As anticipated, demand for Lincoln cents is increasing because of the 100-year anniversary of the coin and the 200th anniversary of President Abraham Lincoln's birth. Dealers are seeking to buy individual Lincoln cents as well as circulated rolls of early issues and Uncirculated rolls of many of the later issues. Promotions of various sets of Lincoln cents are increasing.

Rolls of other coins are being sought in large quantities by dealers as well. For example, one large mail-order firm is seeking rolls of Jefferson 5-cent coins, Roosevelt dimes and Walking Liberty half dollars, in addition to what it normally purchases.

This firm is also searching for Proof American Eagle silver bullion coins, beginning with the first year of issue, 1986-S, to the later issues. It would like to buy hundreds of pieces and is offering nearly $35 per coin.

Another large firm is offering to purchase any denomination of Proof American Eagle gold bullion coin with boxes and papers for $1,375 per ounce. These are wholesale prices paid to other dealers who often sell to them in quantity, saving the additional work of having to assemble additional small deals. A reasonable profit margin would have to be added to the prices of the coins for consumers.

One firm is seeking rolls of Brilliant Uncirculated State quarter dollars. It is paying more than two and three times face value for the Tennessee, Georgia, Illinois and Connecticut issues. Others are being purchased at just a few dollars more than the $10 face value of the rolls.

Carson City Mint Morgan silver dollars are frequent best sellers, but several dealers are in the market to purchase individual issues and grades of other silver dollars � in circulated as well as Mint State grades.
 

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What a difference a year makes. I can remember sitting down in December 2007 to compile my annual What’s Hot/What’s Not list for 2008 and thinking “every area in the market is so strong right now, what am I going to force myself to list as ‘not hot?” Fast forward to December 2008 and now it seems like I have to pull ideas out of the hat like Numismatic Rabbits to come up with areas that are hot while the “not so hot” areas seems a lot easier to ponder.

But perhaps I’m being a little harsh here. Just as in late 2007 where the real truth of the market was not as obvious as it seemed (in retrospect maybe not every single facet of the market was so strong…) perhaps the real truth today is that while some areas of the market do seem poised for major corrections, others will probably hold out better than eternal pessimists like myself might presume.

OK, enough of the prelude. Let’s get to the heart of the matter and discuss the Hot/Not Hot list of 2009.

I. Hot Series in Late 2008/Early 2009

a) Great Coins

My guess is that really great one-of-a-kind, super-duper, unforgettable types of coins will do well in the coming months. Obviously, only a small number of coins qualify as such. What would a few examples of these be? Taking the Heritage 2009 FUN Platinum Night sale as a base, I think examples would include the ex: Garrett 1815 half eagle graded MS64 by NGC (Lot 4062), one of two known 1842-C Small Date half eagles (this one is a PCGS MS62 and is Lot 4069) and the uber-cool NGC PR64 1842 half eagle (lot 4078) that is one of just two known and has a fantastic pedigree that goes back over a century. The market for coins like these is limited but the buyers who are likely to purchase any of these have deep pockets and are probably a bit more Recession-proof than Joe Collector.

b) Solid Collector Coins in Strongly-Collected Markets

To use a non-gold coin series as an example, take a look at the prices that interesting Large Cents have been bringing at auction in the past year. There are three different collector bases for Large Cents (early dates, middle dates and late dates) with very little overlap but similarly zealous enthusiasm. This will be severely tested in 2009 when the Naftzger middle dates, Dan Holmes and March Wells collections all go on the auction block. Will this be a scenario like the Southern Gold Tsunami of 1999-2000 when three major collections flooded the market and effectively killed it or will it foster new collectors and inject even more life into this area of market? I tend to former the later scenario.

To further add to this point, I think the collector-oriented gold coins that are the strongest right now are those in the sub-$10,000 range. The air is a little thin for coins priced above this unless they are very fresh, very choice and very interesting.

c) Type One Double Eagles

This area is strong for two reasons. The first is the good ‘ol double play impact. With any Liberty Head double eagle worth at least $1,000-1,100 in XF grades, this added value and demand for the boring, lower-grade common issues. The second is continued collector demand for higher grade and rare issues. As an example, the key 1854-O and 1856-O remain in great demand and both set record prices in 2008 at auction. I can think of at least six other dates off the top of my head (1854-S, 1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O, 1861-O and 1863) that also set price records in 2008 whether at auction or via private treaty. I believe that demand will remain very strong in 2009 for interesting Type Ones.

II. Not Hot Series in late 2008/early 2009

a) Schlocky Overgraded Coins in Nearly Any Series

Let’s face an unavoidable truth: there are a lot of really junky coins overhanging the coin market right now. If you look on many dealers’ websites (or in their cases at a show like FUN) you are going to see some familiar faces. You know what I mean: coins that have been around for months (or years in some instances) because they are too dark or too bright or have some sort of problem that makes them low-end for the grade. In the past, there were always bottom feeder collectors and dealers who would buy low-end “stuff” at the right price but many of these individuals have been Slapped by the Recession already and are not as active as they were. Until much of this stuff leaves the market (and there are hundreds of millions of dollars worth of coins like this out there right now) expect to see them languish in dealer’s inventories (or go unsold at auction) and drag values down in the published price guides.

b) Unpopular Coins With Questionable Market Premium Factors

If a coin in a largely unpopular series is currently selling for a 10-30% premium because of a low mintage figure or a slightly low PCGS/NGC population, it is likely that it will lose much (or all) of its MPF. Some examples of these coins are a number of the quarter eagles from the 1880’s and 1890’s, certain lower mintage Three Dollar gold pieces from the 1880’s and many of the San Francisco Type Three double eagles from the 1890’s and early 1900’s in grades up to and including MS63.

c) Crappy, Processed Charlotte and Dahlonega Mint Gold

As someone who is pretty widely-known as a leading dealer in Charlotte and Dahlonega gold, it pains me to look at a majority of the coins on the market today. Overgraded junque is, I’m afraid, the rule rather than the exception and a considerable amount of said material overhangs the market. Until recently, there were always bottom feeders who bought the nastiest C+D rejects at the right (read: c-h-e-a-p) price but many of these Numismatic Catfish have current cashflow crises to deal with. Personally, I’d like to take the 300-400+ truly vile C+D coins that travel like gypsies from auction to auction and inventory to inventory and melt them. This would allow the nice, original coins (which still have solid collector demand) to regain their place in the sun.

d) Indian Quarter Eagles

Dead as a doorknob. Sleeping with the fishes. Circling the drain. Numismatic Cannon Fodder. Muerto.
Did I mention that this series is pretty slow right now?