Hunting for good coin buys
By Paul M. Green 

There are many coins that are correctly priced, but there are always a few that provide surprises, and 2006 should be no different. Usually, for a coin to make a surprising price move it requires new demand or some other change in the market. It’s a little like trying to predict the future, but what can be done is to speculate on coins that—if things change slightly—have the potential to move upward in price. Here are some of my picks.

1. Carson City dollars are always popular. Having been minted at the facility most directly associated with the Old West, the Carson City dollar is in demand from collectors and non-collectors. For many, Carson City dollars are souvenirs of a time when gunfighters met at high noon and a trip across the country meant months dodging Indians, thieves, and the elements.

Of course, with all of that interest, you might think every Carson City dollar would have a high price. However, assuming something is the best way to get in trouble in terms of coin prices or almost anything else.

Let’s look at the 1885-CC Morgan dollar. It is currently expensive in Good-4, at $375. That puts the 1885-CC only behind some of the key Morgan dollar dates, such as the 1889-CC ($625 in G-4), the 1893-S ($2,750), and the 1894 ($1,125).

No one has a problem with those prices. Although, in his book, The Official Red Book of Morgan Silver Dollars, Q. David Bowers, who knows as much about market supplies as anyone, notes:

“Ironically, the 1885-CC is the rarest of all Morgan dollars in circulated grades eclipsing the 1889-CC, 1893-S and all other contenders (not counting the Proof-only 1895) but there are so many Mint State coins that worn pieces are generally unappreciated.”

That observation has to be taken very seriously. It is a case where much of the coin’s original mintage was not released into circulation. Rather, the coins languished among government holdings of the largely unneeded silver dollars.

A few bags of 1885-CC dollars did enter the market in the 1950s. And since the 1885-CC was scarce, the coins from those bags, unlike some other dates, were saved in significant numbers.

When an inventory of the remaining coins in government vaults was conducted, it was discovered that 148,285, or 65.03 percent, of the original mintage of the 1885-CC was there. Naturally, that explained in large part why the 1885-CC had been so tough. Although that was not the highest percent of the original mintage of Morgan dollar date to be found, it was one of the top few, making the 1885-CC suddenly very available in mint state.

Based on grading-service totals, we see that Bowers’ observation is not only correct, but if anything it is also likely an understatement. The Professional Coin Grading Service, as of the time of this writing, has graded 14,324 1885-CC Morgan dollars of which 18 were circulated. Meanwhile, Numismatic Guaranty Corp. graded 4,753 1885-CC Morgan dollars of which only three were circulated. That makes a total of just 21 circulated examples. In fairness, collectors might not send in circulated Morgans for grading, but when the starting price for any 1885-CC is more than $300, the possibility of any example being graded is much better.

This coin is unusual in that there are actually more specimens available in mint state than in circulated grades. Currently, an MS-60 1885-CC lists at $600, while an Extremely Fine-40 brings $465. The problem is that there are virtually no circulated 1885-CCs for anyone to buy.

Therefore, the circulated 1885-CC is a very interesting coin. If there were any demand at all the price would have to rise simply because the 1885-CC is so rare in circulated grades. Of course, there is a limit, as the circulated price cannot really reach the MS-60 price. But in the range from the current $375 in G-4 to $600 MS-60, there’s room for movement among the circulated coins. There are so few that the owner could command a better price.

2. Often mintages for dates from the same series serve as a very good indication as to which dates will be more costly in virtually every grade. However, in MS-65, there can be exceptions.

For instance, some of the San Francisco Peace dollars were poorly struck, making their totals in top grades less than would be expected. In circulated grades, and even lower mint-state grades, however, mintage totals are usually a good guide.

That is almost certainly why few have questioned the 124,610-mintage 1914 Barber half dollar bringing $1,300 in MS-60, while the 138,450-mintage 1915 Barber half dollar is $1,200. The two are close in mintage, created just one year apart at the same facility, and, logically, the 1914 appears to be just a little better than the 1915. This is until you check grading service totals. PCGS has graded 95 examples of the 1914 in MS-60 and just 68 examples of the 1915. It may just be one of those rare cases where a grading service has graded an unusual number of one date. But the NGC totals show an even more dramatic pattern. NGC has graded 60 MS-60 1914 Barber half dollars and only 26 examples of the 1915.

This falls short of absolute proof that the 1915, despite its slightly higher mintage, is less available in MS-60 than the 1914, but it certainly points in that direction.

In some grades that situation might not really matter but in Barber half dollars it easily could. In MS-65 a Barber half dollar tends to start at about $3,000, so there is solid economic reason that some might opt for the lower mint-state grade, like MS-60, as they are still getting a very nice coin at a much lower price. If many go in that direction in the future and the 1915 is actually much less available (as seems to be), we could very easily see it pass the 1914 in MS-60.

3. Sometimes prices for a given series may be basically correct in that the tougher date is more expensive, however, the price difference is not an accurate reflection of the real availability. We see this with the 1796 half cents.

The 1796 half cent is a real rarity, and there are two varieties. One 1796 half cent, with a mintage of 5,090, came with a pole. The other, without a pole, had a mintage of 1,390. Clearly, both are extremely tough, as reflected in prices of $15,000 in G-4 for the with pole variety and $27,000 for the lower mintage variety without a pole.

In fact, it appears that the without pole variety is much tougher than even these prices suggest. If we check the grading services, we find NGC has graded 15 examples of the 1796 with pole half cent, but the total of the without pole half cent is just a single coin. It is not any different at PCGS, where 33 examples of the 1796 half cent with a pole have been graded but only four without the pole.

Such totals deserve some real thought, as the current price levels of the 1796 with a pole seem to be about right, but the fact that the two major grading services have seen only five examples of the 1796 without a pole suggests it is not a $27,000 coin.

In fairness, the $27,000 is a G-4 price. However, with the very real possibility that there may be fewer than a dozen known to exist (as certainly a 1796 half cent is a coin most would have authenticated and graded), the without pole 1796 half cent is in a very different class and possibly worthy of being considered a great rarity.

4. Throughout the issues of the 1800s there are any number of potentially sleeping giants, especially in mint state. A good example is the 1852-O Seated Liberty quarter. This is a date many suspect is tougher than its 96,000 mintage suggests. The 1852-O was the final quarter produced at New Orleans before the amount of silver in a quarter dollar was reduced slightly in early 1853. With its low mintage, the 1852-O is a better date, priced at $175 in G-4 and $8,000 in MS-60.

There is good reason to believe that some of its already low mintage may have been melted when the legislation lowering the amount of silver was passed. That is a logical assumption, but there is no real proof of the melting other lower-than-usual remaining examples.

It is in mint state, however, where the 1852-O turns out to be a real surprise. Like any New Orleans date of the period, very few were saved, as at the time there were few if any collectors in the New Orleans area.

We see it over and over again. New Orleans issues, as well as other branch-mint issues, tend to be very scarce in mint state. In the case of the 1852-O, however, we have a date that, based on its price, seems to follow the normal pattern of just being tougher than might be expected.

However, it is much tougher than even the $8,000 price suggests. At NGC only one example has reached mint state, and that was an MS-61. At PCGS no pieces have been graded mint state.

It would be unfair to conclude that this means there is only one example of the 1852-O in mint state, but what it points to is that the 1852-O is scarcer in mint state than anyone realized. Like other Seated Liberty coins, there is limited demand and that could keep the 1852-O from realizing the sort of price that might be expected when there are few known mint-state examples. However, if an 1852-O in mint state were to surface at an auction in the near future it could produce a very surprising price.

5. It is not just lesser known mint-state issues that could bring surprising prices. The 1901-S and 1913-S Barber quarters have historically been the keys to a Barber quarter collection. The 1901-S, with a mintage of 72,664, has always been more expensive. That might seem to fly in the face of logic, as the mintage of the 1913-S is just 40,000. But it generally reflects the fact that the 1901-S is less available.

Back in 1998, the 1901-S was priced at $1,750 in G-4, while the 1913-S was $415 in the same grade. Since that time, the 1901-S has managed to climb to $5,500 in G-4, while the 1913-S is $990. Roughly speaking, the 1901-S has tripled in price, while the 1913-S has not quite done as well.

The interesting thing is that today the 1901-S is about five times more expensive than the 1913-S, and one has to wonder if that difference is justified. In the 1990s, Littleton Coin Co. purchased what it called the “New York Subway Hoard” and in that hoard were key dates that were found in coins collected by the New York Transit Authority. There were eight examples of the 1901-S and 20 of the 1913-S. Those totals supported the 1901-S being more expensive, but in reality the 1913-S was found 2.5 times more often than the 1901-S.

While the two are actually getting further apart in price, one has to wonder if that is justified by the numbers seen. The New York Subway Hoard certainly did not seem to support such a trend.

If we check at NGC, that firm has graded an identical number of each, both having appeared 85 times. The only difference is that there were more examples of the 1901-S in mint state. PCGS has graded 304 examples of the 1901-S and 320 examples of the 1913-S. So the 1913-S is seen more often, but not that much more often.

Under the circumstances, while current prices show the 1901-S at five times more in G-4 than the 1913-S, the New York Subway Hoard totals and the numbers graded by NGC and PCGS lead you to believe the 1901-S is not five times better than the 1913-S.

6 & 7. There seems to increased interest in Jefferson nickels because of the new designs, and that interest could well spark demand. If we consider what that might do to Jefferson nickel prices, perhaps the most interesting place to look is at the most expensive dates in MS-65.

The top Jefferson nickels in MS-65 are the 1939-D, at $125; the 1942-D, at $60; and the 1939-S, at $45. The question is: Are those prices are in line with existing supplies?

Of the 1939-D, the most expensive of the three, NGC has graded 535 as MS-65 and PCGS close to 750. The 1942-D, which is about half the price of the 1939-D, shows totals of 340 at NGC and 204 at PCGS in MS-65. While the 1939-S, at about a third the price of the 1939-D, has totals of 291 at NGC and around 450 at PCGS. Clearly the totals do not support the current price differences.

In part we have to consider the fact that the 1939-D is submitted for grading more often than the other two, probably because the cost of certification makes it less likely the lower priced dates will be submitted. However, even if the numbers of the 1939-S and 1942-D submitted equaled the 1939-D and all of the coins were MS-65, the 1939-S and 1942-D would appear to be too low in price compared to the 1939-D.

Once again, it is a volatile situation. There are potentially significant numbers of coins of these dates that have not been graded. But it does lead one to believe it is worth watching. Supplies of the 1942-D and 1939-S might well be lower than we think.

There are certainly a significant number of other dates worth watching in the months ahead. The coin market today seems to have its share of real sleepers that might just wake up and soar in price.